On... 90% Fail?

A commonly quoted statistic in trading is that 90% of people lose money or break even and only 10% of traders make money. 

Is that really true and where did the numbers come from? Intuitively it seems rather pessimistic considering the stock market index has only gone up over time, if you zoom out. If the stock market is an average of all the participants return, then wouldn't at least 50% of traders make money? I would expect that at least 50% of participants make money, or even more. Probably just me being optimistic. 

I think if it were really true that only 10% of traders make money and the rest break even or lose, I would pinpoint it down to one main reason. Of course there are many reasons like trading is difficult, most people don't have the personality to trade, people are not taking trading seriously, etc. Those are all valid reasons but they are general reasons why you don't succeed in any activity and not trading specific. The reason I think many people fail is because they just did not stick around long enough. 

Yes, it is true that trading is difficult and it is hard to make money. But I think most people or at least 50% of traders can make money just by sticking around long enough. Trading is very volatile and draw downs are a common feature not a bug. Most people I suspect just gave up before the environment is suitable for their strategy. Remember that each strategy works only some time and no strategy works all the time. If you happen to pick a strategy - say trend trading, in a choppy market environment, you're bound to lose money. The trick is to not lose much money and just survive during periods where your strategy is not working. 

I think if you want to make money trading, just focus on surviving. Just by showing up each day, you're already one step ahead of many traders out there and success is surely just around the corner.