Posts

On... 2024

2025 marks the starting of the eight year of my investing. 2024 is a bumper year for me ( see below Figure ). My Net Worth broke All Time High in 2024 with a growth of 45% ( Largest growth so far ). The earlier part was pretty good and trending upwards until circa April 2024. It then started to dump and luckily reversed in December. ROI for my Portfolio is 7.9% ( ROI since Inception ). For the latest Portfolio Updates, see  Portfolio Updates .  In 2024, I started to include shorter term trades after listening to the 'Top Traders Unplugged' podcasts. They recommended diversifying across time frames to capture all possible upsides. The short term trades have a holding period of days to roughly a month. This year ( and consistent with the past few years ), Buy and Hold largely outperforms short term and mid term trades. Does it mean that I should revert to Buy and Hold? I think probably not. It just means that the market structure favors Buy and Hold but we do not know how the st...

On... Moving On

If you fall into a hole, you must crawl out immediately. Getting rugged in crypto is bad. But even worse is rugging yourself. And I rugged myself recently! It felt like falling into a hole. What happened was, I was supposed to send 1k AUD to a friend. But for whatever reason, I sent it to a wrong account. Needless to say, I am unable to retrieve the money up till today. I actually know the person I sent the money to. It is my insurance agent that I haven't contacted for more than fifteen years but it was still worth a shot of trying to reach out to her. She ignored me after I explained to her what had happened. Can't say I am too surprised to be honest. My faith in humanity is not very high at this point. Years of investing in the crypto space has turned me into a cynic. So after a few tries of trying to contact her, I gave up. And decided to move on. When you fall into a hole, you must crawl out as soon as possible. However, my family has from time to time, asked me whether I ...

On... Delaying Retirement

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Before you reach your first million, you should not take your foot off the gas pedal. If you really want to retire or retire early, consider reducing your expenditure. Not talking about small items like having a coffee but big ticket items, say values of more than 10k AUD. Because the wonders of compounding works in reverse when you spend big, it can significantly delay your retirement. I ran a few scenarios to compare what our spending do to our retirement planning. These are very simple scenarios with very rough numbers. You can do this for yourself and see how your spending delays your retirement. That should help you think twice before you go on your next big purchase! The chart below shows 3 scenarios. For all scenarios, it assumes the starting investment capital of 130k AUD with a portfolio return of 10 percent per annum. I assume you can retire when you have grown your account to 1 million AUD. Scenario 1 ( Blue ) is the Base Case. Scenario 2 ( Grey ) is a scenario of the impact...

On.. Not all DCA are Created Equal

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What do we do if we have a stack of cash to deploy? I believe that for an asset that is predicted to go up in the long term, Lump Sum is the way.  Having said that, and I do have a stack of cash sitting on the sidelines at the moment, I chose to DCA ( Dollar Costs Average ) instead.  Mathematically speaking, I think Lump Sum gives a better financial return. But it is not all about the total returns. DCA means that I will a stack of cash available in case of an emergency. It is also more fun to deploy cash over time.  So DCA is better, that is settled then? It is in general but there are still some variations in how you can deploy your DCA. Although I prefer, DCA for the reasons stated above, I also like financial returns. Therein, I explore the different DCA scenarios. 1. DCA at the same rate over the investment term. 2. Front load your DCA. 3. Back load your DCA. Figure 1 shows the DCA Scenarios. The assumption is that I have 12,000 AUD to deploy over a 20 year period wi...

On... Only Time Matters?

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Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world. And it works wonders if compounding is done over the long term. However, sometimes the importance of time in compounding can be taken over the top as if it is the only important aspect of increasing one's wealth. Time is important but we have to look at other factors as well in our Financial Planning. Figure 1 shows the scenario of compounding my Networth by 4 percent per annum over twenty years. With a starting value of 600 AUD, and additional injection of 600 AUD annually. That takes us to a total of 20,000 AUD. You can see the 'hockey stick' part of the chart forming as we're entering our 20th year. From there on, it probably goes parabolic. That shows that compounding works best if we have a long time frame. However, what if we missed the first 10 years? Is that the end of our compounding dreams? Actually, not at all. We often state that time is the greatest part of compounding. Well, yes, you need to compound for a long t...

On... Inflation is Bad?

 Is inflation bad or good? Maybe inflation is neither good nor bad. Sure, generally it is considered bad as the costs of living keeps going up. As time goes by, your purchasing power is decreased, eaten up by inflation. A good example of this is the Big Mac price inflation as reported in the Visual Capitalist website . A Big Mac in Australia costs 2.27 AUD in 2004 and 4.51 AUD in 2022, a price increase of 98%. So, the price of Big Mac has gone up 98% in that time frame. Therefore inflation must be bad right? Well, not so fast. How about other things like property or stocks? Those things have gone up in price as well. Average house prices have gone from 539k AUD in 2014 to 993k AUD in 2023. I know average house prices is not really the best number to use because there are too many factors that govern the price of property ( such as location, type of house, etc.. ) but we know generally it has gone up. Well, then if the price of house has gone up, its bad if you want to buy a house ...

On... What's our Time Worth?

How much is our hourly rate? People chase money, but is the extra time we put into earning worth our time? You definitely need to put in the minimum time at work to fulfill your basic necessities of putting food on the table, a roof over your head, and paying bills. However, after fulfilling that, how much time do you want to put at work versus enjoying your life? My father in law was diagnosed with cancer and his medical bill was around 100k for chemotherapy. Unfortunately, that did not work, and he passed away. My auntie was recently diagnosed with cancer, and she paid around 100k for chemotherapy. As of now, she is still doing fine and I hope she continues to recover. The reason I brought up these stories, is because they made me think of time versus money. 100k is what we may pay to live longer ( if only just for an extra year? ). How much longer we don't know. Sometimes medical treatment doesn't work, but the gist is we are willing to pay a lot just to have more time. The ...