January 2024

Stock I'm watching this month (Updated January 2024):-

EVN - Evolution Mining Limited

Sector: Basic Materials
Market Cap: 6.16 Billion
Price/Earnings: 35.66
Price/Book: 1.9
Return On Equity: 4.99%
Return On Assets: 3.13%
Debt/Equity: 55.52%

Reasons to watch: The gold price has been on a sideways since it topped out in December 2023 at about 2095 USD/oz. Gold usually does well in times of high inflation. Inflation data has been showing a decrease since the FED started their rate hiking cycle in early 2023. 

Risk: Got stopped out of the position when the price gapped down on the 17th of January 2023 following a press release. Stocks can have volatile movement on any announcement. If the announcement is not as per market expectation, it can have a big move.

Sentiment: Sell
Disclosure: Not Held
My Strike Price: N/A



Disclaimer: This does not constitute any financial advice or stock recommendations. As always, Do Your Own Research.

                                                                                                                                                                       



Stock I'm watching this month (September 2018):-

EVN - Evolution Mining Limited

Sector: Basic Materials
Market Cap: 4.85 Billion
Price/Earnings: 18.45
Price/Book: 2.12
Return On Equity: 11.93%
Return On Assets: 7.4%
Debt/Equity: 16.87%

Reasons to watch: The valuation metrics looks good (although trailing far behind NST's ROE of 27.02%). At the current price ($2.86), EVN is trading below its intrinsic value. Recently the USD gold price have fallen dramatically (about 10% in the past half year), which poses a headwind for EVN. However, the AUD gold price has been relatively stable (4% drop in the past half year). EVN had released a forecast of increasing cost and decreasing production for FY19, which is another headwind for the company. Therefore, the company does not look promising in the short term. But for the long term, I expect the bull case for gold miners to play out. Some central banks (Russia, Turkey, China, etc.) have been purchasing and storing gold. The net gold short has been highest in recent times (at some point, the shorts would need to be covered). It is also said that gold has reached or nearly reached peak production. And the mother of all bull cases - reintroduction of a gold standard sometime in the future!

Sentiment: Buy
Disclosure: Held
My Strike Price: $2.88 (Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: $4.18)



Disclaimer: This does not constitute any financial advice or stock recommendations. As always, Do Your Own Research.


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