On... Searching for Dry Land
Recently the ASX200 entered into a bear market and then reversed into a bull market shortly. Was that a true rebound or a bear market rally? As posted in the last blog , since we don't know the reason for entering a bear market, we sure will not know the reason for entering a bull market. If you don't know the reason, then you can't time it as there is no reliable signal to use ( Well, some people can pick tops and bottoms, but not me ). If I can't determine the reason for the start of a bull market, and I can't time the bottom, how do I know when to start investing again? I was lucky to go to a high cash level in February, but when do I start to deploy that cash? I have already missed the rally in April. Will this rally go on or will it fizzle out and retest the lows? Somehow, I'm suddenly reminded of the story of Noah's ark. In the story, GOD sent a flood to destroy most of the Earth except for Noah and his family ( and some animals ). For forty days...